Supply and Demand Profiles: The Key to Balanced Aircraft Maintenance Planning

Aircraft maintenance planning rarely fails because of a lack of intent. In most organisations, the challenge is not what needs to be done, but how limited resources are matched to an often-unpredictable workload. This is where supply and demand profiles become critical.

A well‑constructed supply and demand profile provides planners, engineering leaders and CAMOs with a clear, time‑phased view of capacity versus workload. When done properly, it enables proactive decision‑making, reduces firefighting, and supports safe, compliant operations.

Understanding Demand in Aircraft Maintenance Planning

In aviation, demand represents the total maintenance workload that must be accomplished to keep aircraft airworthy and available. This demand is rarely static and is influenced by a range of operational and regulatory drivers.

Typical demand inputs include:

• Scheduled maintenance checks (line and base)

• Forecast defects derived from reliability programs

• Unscheduled defects and pilot reports

• Airworthiness Directives (ADs) and mandatory inspections

• Service Bulletins (SBs) and modifications

• Fleet utilisation changes and seasonal flying programs

• AOG events and recovery maintenance

While some elements of demand are predictable, others are inherently variable. Mature planning organisations acknowledge this uncertainty and deliberately model it, rather than ignoring it.

Defining Supply in the Maintenance Environment

Supply represents the organisation’s ability to absorb and execute maintenance demand within regulatory, safety and human‑factors constraints. In aviation, supply is far more complex than simple headcount.

Key supply elements include:

• Licensed and unlicensed engineer availability

• Type ratings and authorisation coverage

• Shift patterns and fatigue limitations

• Hangar and ramp capacity

• Tooling, GSE and test equipment availability

• Specialised trade capabilities (eg: NDT, painting & welding)

• Access to approved maintenance data and ICA

A common planning mistake is to assume supply is constant. In reality, supply fluctuates due to leave, training, sickness, licence limitations, industrial agreements and unplanned disruptions.

What Is a Supply and Demand Profile?

A supply and demand profile is a structured, time‑based comparison of:

• What work needs to be done (demand)

• What resources are available to do it (supply)

Profiles can be built across multiple time horizons:

• Short‑term (days to weeks)

• Medium‑term (months)

• Long‑term (seasonal or annual)

When visualised correctly, they highlight peaks, troughs and mismatches that would otherwise remain hidden until they manifest as operational problems.

The Consequences of Imbalance

When demand consistently exceeds supply, organisations experience:

• Increased defect deferrals

• Heavy reliance on overtime

• Reduced maintenance quality margins

• Heightened fatigue and human‑factors risk

• Increased audit findings and regulatory exposure

• Potential fleet declining fleet health

Conversely, excess supply relative to demand can result in:

• Inefficient labour utilisation

• Escalating costs

• Pressure to create unnecessary work

Balanced planning is not about eliminating variability but about managing it deliberately.

Reactive vs Proactive Planning

Organisations without robust understanding of their supply and demand profiling tend to operate reactively. Maintenance becomes a sequence of short‑term responses driven by the loudest problem of the day.

Proactive planning organisations, by contrast:

• Forecast demand using reliability and utilisation data

• Model multiple supply scenarios

• Identify constraints early

• Make informed trade‑offs before issues become urgent

This shift from reactive to proactive planning is a key indicator of organisational maturity.

Building Effective Supply and Demand Profiles

Effective profiles rely on disciplined inputs and regular review. Best practice includes:

• Accurate task duration & trade assignment data

• Realistic productivity assumptions

• Explicit allowance for unscheduled work

• Integration between planning, engineering and operations

• Routine review and re‑forecasting

Importantly, profiles should be used as decision‑support tools, not as static reports.

Common Planning Pitfalls

Across the industry, several recurring issues undermine supply and demand modelling:

• Not understanding peak versus off-peak demand (schedule driven)

• Underestimating unscheduled maintenance

• Ignoring licence and authorisation constraints

• Treating planning outputs as commitments rather than forecasts

Recognising these pitfalls is the first step toward improving planning resilience.

Why Supply and Demand Profiles Matter

Balanced aircraft maintenance planning underpins safety, compliance and operational performance. Supply and demand profiles provide the visibility required to manage complexity, anticipate constraints and make informed decisions. For maintenance organisations and CAMOs, investing in structured planning frameworks is not an administrative exercise — it is a core operational capability.

At Jotore, we see effective supply and demand profiling as a foundation for sustainable maintenance performance, enabling organisations to move beyond firefighting and toward controlled, compliant execution.

Author: Jotore – Aviation Maintenance & Engineering Advisory

Stay Safe,

Craig.