Forecasting Talent Gaps: Averting the Next Aviation Maintenance Shortage

Forecasting Talent Gaps

There are aircraft parked today around the world, that are technically serviceable — but operationally unavailable — because there is no one authorised to release them back to service.

Not because of weather.

Not because of parts.

Because the licensed capability simply isn’t there.

This is not a future risk. It is a present constraint that many maintenance leaders recognise.

Much has been written about global resourcing, fleet growth, sustainability, and next-generation aircraft. Yet a more immediate and fundamental constraint is tightening its grip on operations — the availability of experienced, competent aviation maintenance professionals.

At Jotore, we see this not as a staffing issue, but more as a system design problem — and one with direct safety, regulatory, and commercial consequences.

Aircraft Are Assets. Engineers Are Capability.

Aircraft can be financed, leased, extended, or deferred. Engineering capability cannot.

Over the past decade, maintenance organisations have been asked to absorb:

• Rapid post-COVID fleet ramp-ups

• Increasing aircraft and systems complexity

• Heavier regulatory oversight of competence, authorisation, and human factors

• Ageing fleets demanding deeper maintenance input

At the same time, the pipeline of licensed engineers has failed to grow at the same rate — and in some regions, has gone backwards.

The result is not immediately visible on a balance sheet. It appears instead as:

• Narrowing rostering margins

• Authorisation bottlenecks

• Increased reliance on overtime and contractors

• Delayed maintenance events disguised as “operational flexibility”

These are not isolated issues. They are symptoms of a system operating closer to its limits than it was ever designed to.

Why the Maintenance Talent Pipeline Is Drying Up

This shortage is not the result of a single decision. It is the cumulative outcome of multiple, rational choices made over time.

An Ageing, Experience-Heavy Workforce

Across many mature aviation markets, a large portion of licensed engineers are approaching retirement. What leaves with them is not just headcount, but:

• Deep troubleshooting intuition

• Pattern recognition built over decades

• Informal mentoring that never appears in procedures or training syllabi

When this experience exits abruptly, organisations lose resilience — not just capacity. This translates into the operational fragility.

Longer Paths to Full Productivity

Modern aircraft demand more than mechanical proficiency. Engineers are now expected to manage:

• Highly integrated avionics and software-driven systems

• Complex fault isolation across multiple layers of automation

• Expanded human factors and regulatory accountability

Time-to-competence is lengthening, not shortening. For many new entrants, aviation now competes poorly against other technical industries offering faster progression, more predictable rosters, and fewer regulatory burdens.

Competition Aviation No Longer Wins by Default

Maintenance organisations increasingly compete for talent with:

• Defence and aerospace manufacturing

• Energy, renewables, and heavy industry

• Rail and automation sectors

These industries often provide:

• Stable rosters

• Lower compliance exposure

• Comparable or superior remuneration

• Clear career path progression

The traditional appeal of aviation — prestige, purpose, and excitement — is no longer sufficient on its own.

The “Missing Generation” Effect

During downturns, apprentice intakes and trainee programs are often the first levers pulled. Those decisions rarely hurt immediately — but they create gaps in the experience curve that surface years later.

Many organisations are now discovering they have:

• Senior engineers nearing retirement

• Juniors at the very start of their careers

• And too few in the critical middle band

This is one of the most difficult gaps to repair quickly.

Demand Is Rising — Even If Fleets Stabilise

Fleet forecasts consistently point to:

• Continued narrow-body dominance

• Longer aircraft service lives

• Increased maintenance intensity as assets age

Simultaneously, regulators are raising expectations around:

• Competency assurance

• Authorisation governance

• Organisational capacity during growth

Even flat fleet numbers will require more maintenance effort per aircraft, not less.

The constraint, increasingly, is not metal — it is people.

When Workforce Shortage Becomes a Safety Risk

Talent shortages become safety issues long before they appear in incident statistics.

They surface quietly, through:

• Fatigue exposure from extended overtime

• Compressed task windows

• Reduced supervision and mentoring capacity

• Reliance on temporary or unfamiliar resources

None of these decisions are made recklessly. They are usually made in good faith, under operational pressure.

History shows that safety margins are not eroded by intent — but by systemic overload.

What Strong Organisations Are Doing Differently

Some maintenance organisations are responding proactively — not by lowering the bar, but by redesigning how capability is built and sustained.

Across Australia for example, there has been a clear step-change in investment aimed at rebuilding the talent pipeline:

• The Qantas Engineering Academy has expanded structured pathways to attract, train, and retain the next generation of engineers, with a deliberate focus on long-term capability rather than short-term labour relief.

• RMIT’s aviation and aerospace programs continue to evolve, aligning academic foundations with real-world maintenance requirements and strengthening the interface between education and industry.

• Virgin Australia’s apprenticeship and trainee programs have been ramped up to rebuild internal capability following years of industry contraction, recognising that sustainable operations require in-house technical depth.

• Aviation Australia has significantly increased training capacity, working closely with operators and regulators to support licence outcomes across multiple aircraft types and disciplines.

Collectively, these initiatives represent a serious and necessary commitment to the future of aviation maintenance. The industry is not standing still.

However, this scale-up introduces its own challenge — one that cannot be ignored.

The Standards Question: Growth Without Dilution

Expanding training throughput is essential. Maintaining standards while doing so is critical.

As intakes grow and experience levels diversify, organisations must guard against unintended consequences, including:

• Accelerated authorisation pathways without sufficient operational exposure

• Over-reliance on classroom completion as a proxy for competence

• Mentoring and supervision ratios stretched beyond effective limits

• Senior engineers carrying disproportionate oversight loads

Quality in aviation maintenance is not produced by volume. It is produced by time, exposure, judgement, and disciplined supervision.

Strong organisations are therefore pairing growth with deliberate safeguards, including:

• Competency-based authorisation models rather than time-served progression

• Structured mentoring frameworks that protect experienced engineers from burnout

• Clear separation between training milestones and operational release authority

• Active regulator engagement to ensure alignment on standards, not just capacity

The challenge ahead is not simply producing more engineers — it is producing engineers who are safe, confident, and operationally effective under real-world pressure.

A System Under Construction

The industry response underway is encouraging. But success will depend on discipline as much as ambition. Training pipelines can be scaled quickly. Experience cannot.

The organisations that emerge strongest from the next decade will be those that treat capability as a system — balancing growth with standards, opportunity with responsibility, and urgency with restraint.

Because rebuilding the workforce is not just about filling seats in classrooms.

It’s about ensuring that when the aircraft is ready —there is someone fully prepared to competently sign it back into the sky.

The Regulatory Dimension

Regulators are paying closer attention to workforce sustainability as a leading indicator of safety.

Expect increasing scrutiny of:

• Training system robustness

• Competency management effectiveness

• Organisational capacity during expansion

• Human Factors impacts on rostering and task acquittal

Maintenance approvals will increasingly depend not just on manuals and systems — but on whether the organisation can realistically sustain safe operations with the people it has.

Why This Matters Now

Aviation has a habit of solving problems late — usually after disruption forces the action.

The maintenance talent gap is still recoverable. But requires:

• Honest forecasting

• Long-term investment

• Willingness to rethink how engineers are trained, supported, and retained

The cost of acting now is measurable. The cost of waiting will be operational, financial, and reputational.

The Jotore View

At Jotore, we see workforce sustainability as an engineering problem — not an HR one.

Aircraft reliability depends on systems. Safety depends on people. And systems fail when people are stretched beyond what they were designed to support.

The next decade of aviation will not be defined by aircraft deliveries or technology alone — but by whether there are enough skilled, experienced hands to maintain what already exists.

Because the greatest threat to operational continuity may not be a grounded aircraft —but an empty hangar.

Stay Safe,

Craig.